The decision by the United States House of Representatives in April 2024 to approve emergency military aid to the Ukraine is welcome, if overdue.  Why the Republicans had previously capitulated to former US president Donald Trump in denying military aid to Ukraine is a mystery.  However, had the United States and/or the European Union (EU) sent aid to Ukraine in the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which was launched in February 2022 then the Ukrainians might by now have militarily defeated Putin’s Russia. 

The Putin regime is essentially sultanistic which means that it is primarily concerned with enriching those in power and as such Putin is encountering difficulty when it comes to sustaining military action because his government is based upon self-interest.  However, Vladimir Putin is a meticulous planner and a brilliant strategist.  Before Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, he first ensured that he had mastery of the domestic Russian political scene so that he could endure a possibly protracted war. 

Much to Putin’s surprise Ukraine was not quickly overrun because of the courage and combat ability of the Ukrainian armed forces and people.  Consequently, Russian troops became bogged down and their supply lines became dangerously over-extended.  Alas, Putin has had the tenacity and the forbearance to make changes in the Russian armed forces command structure and in the organisation of the general war effort so that Russian can now fight a long-term war against Ukraine.  The Russian dictator knows that time is on his side and that by marshalling Russian numerical superiority he can eventually prevail. 

If Ukraine falls to Russia, then Moscow will inevitably make re-assuring peace overtures to EU nations, particularly to nations which previously been a part of the Soviet Union or the Soviet bloc to re-assure them that Russia has no future expansionary designs on them.  Only a fool would believe this!  For once Putin has subdued Ukraine, he will exploit this subjugated nation as a springboard to eventually invade and occupy other nations to the west, such as the three Baltic States.  The question therefore emerges as to what can be done to prevent this horrifying scenario? 

The answer is for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries to deploy military forces to western Ukraine to assume defensive positions.  The western part of Ukraine is currently not occupied by Russia because the Ukrainians are valiantly keeping the Russians at bay in the east of their nation.  As a result, NATO and/or EU troops can be deployed in western Ukraine without initially or necessarily engaging in military conflict with the Russians.  If the Russians advance onto western Ukraine, then NATO forces should engage in armed conflict in a purely defensive context to prevent Moscow from proceeding further westward.    If there is to be offensive military action toward the east, then only the Ukrainians should undertake that in their own right.

Putin knows that he currently has the military capacity to prevail because he has a larger population.  The Russian dictator also knows that this crucial advantage can be turned on its head if external combat troops are sent to Ukraine.  This awareness on Putin’s part has been reflected by his threat to use nuclear weapons should external troops be committed to help defend Ukraine.

However, as the great Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz (1780 – 1831) observed, war is politics by other means, so that for Putin to resort to nuclear war -which could produce a fatal nuclear winter resulting in the extinction of the human race – would serve no political purpose whatsoever.  Even someone as ruthless as Putin would realize that resort to the use of nuclear weapons would be self-defeating and would expose him to the scenario of being overthrown by his own military. 

Furthermore, Putin should understand that if he subsequently exploits a conquered Ukraine to invade neighbouring NATO nations, then he will once again be faced with the prospect of nuclear war.  This is because under the NATO charter member nations are obliged to come to the aid of one of their members should they come under attack.  Is Putin to threaten the use of nuclear weapons should NATO conventional troops be utilized to repel a Russian invasion of a NATO nation? 

Putin’s bluff concerning the resort to nuclear weapons being used if external troops are sent to Ukraine should be called because such a scenario will inevitably arise if NATO is to defend its members against possible future Russian aggression.  It is therefore vital that the western part of Ukraine be occupied by some NATO states in a defensive context even though Ukraine does not yet belong to NATO. 

 Endgame?

Unfortunately, there is no way known that NATO will agree collectively to occupy and defend western Ukraine due to recalcitrance of some member states such as Hungary.  It is also highly improbable that the United States under President Joseph (‘Joe’) Biden will support the deployment of external troops to western Ukraine due to the US president’s abysmal leadership. 

For it was President Biden’s sinister decision to abandon Afghanistan to the Taliban in August 2021 that demonstrated the profound American policy weakness which consequently emboldened Putin’s Russia to subsequently invade Ukraine the following year.  Indeed, President Biden’s initial response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was to offer to fly that nation’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky to the Polish capital so as to ensure that Ukraine surrendered. 

As a result of former US president Borack Obama most probably moving into the void given President Biden’s declining mental capacity, the United States has not completely abandoned Ukraine.  However, it cannot be anticipated that the United States will support the deployment of external troops to defend western Ukraine. 

Nevertheless, NATO specific nations such as Poland, the Czech Republic and the three Baltic States can still expeditiously despatch troops to western Ukraine to save that nation and themselves from future Russian conquest.  These aforementioned nations have all experienced the trauma of previous Russian invasion and occupation and are all now confronted with the prospect of re-experiencing this phenomenon in the future if they are not now bold and decisive in the current situation. Such action would probably swing the balance of the Ukraine conflict, thereby thwarting Putin’s dream of re-establishing the Russian / Soviet empire.