The potential linkage between an American failure to help rescue Ukraine and the consequent outbreak of World War III is analyzed in this article by Dr. David Bennett. 

The current farce of the Trump administration in trying to once again persuade Ukraine to accept unfavorable terms with Moscow, which will eventually lead to that nation being overrun by Russia, has to end.  The termination of this diplomatic charade would not only be beneficial to Ukraine but also for the world.

This is because if Russia succeeds in conquering Ukraine, then a powerful signal will be sent that the United States will also likely stand by to allow communist mainland China to invade the Republic of China (ROC) in Taiwan.

A resumption of the Chinese civil war will be catastrophic for the world economy due to the ROC’s strategic position in Asia. Indeed, it cannot be ruled out that a second Chinese civil war will draw Japan and South Korea in, thereby potentially paving the way for World War III. Even if the United States under a neo-isolationist Trump administration decides to remain neutral in the context of a world war, this will likely do the United States no good.

This is because the economic distortion of an Asian centered major war will disrupt international trade therefore plunging the United States into an economic abyss potentially far worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. The two wings of the American Republican Party, the Trump inspired Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement and the establishment wing, the Centre-right, will consequently be buried by history.

Such a development might be poetic justice for the Republican Party for having betrayed Ukraine and the ROC in Taiwan.  Alas, however the Democrats will probably not on this occasion subsequently produce a Franklin Dealano Roosevelt (FDR) to save the United States and the world from catastrophe, because there is now a highly organized hard-left organization within the Democratic Party, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).

                                                                                                                                                                                                          The DSA Danger

It is therefore not beyond the realms of possibility that a future DSA backed president of the United States will take office due to the political polarization that the Trump administration has so far generated. Depending on the character and judgement of a DSA backed American president, he or she might attempt to impose a dictatorship on the United States. Such a development would be vigorously opposed by the Republicans which in turn could precipitate a major American civil disturbance.

The above cited scenarios are not all that far-fetched given Donald Trump’s efforts in attempting to overturn the 2020 US Presidential election.  However, for President Trump to have ‘gotten away’ with such a draconian action would have required the support of Centre- right Republicans.

These Republicans thankfully refrained from giving their support to this action but were nonetheless sufficiently shrewd to offer their endorsement to Trump for him to run again for president in 2024.  Similarly, Trump was sufficiently astute to realize that he could not win in 2024 without the support of the Centre-right Republicans so that the then outgoing president drew back from contesting the 2020 presidential result to its potentially ruinous climax.

                                                                                                                                                                                                      The Need for Centrists to be Centered

So far, the deal that the Centre-right Republicans have made with Trump has succeeded, even though pacts on the part of political centrists with leaders on the extreme of the political spectrum rarely work out for democracy.  Two examples:

Example 1:

The then ruling Italian Liberal camp eventually ‘came a cropper’ for facilitating Mussolini’s rise to power in 1922, rather than giving way to Italy’s two mass-based parties, the Socialists and the Christian democratic Populari.

Example 2:

Geographically closer to the United States the minority faction within the Cuban Liberal Party gave its support to Fulgencio Batista as he sought the presidency of Cuba in 1952.  The then former Cuban president undoubtedly would have been defeated in the scheduled June 1952 elections.  Instead, due to a confluence of incredible events, Senator Batista was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat by returning to power in a bloodless coup on March 10, 1952.

The pro-Batista faction within the Cuban Liberals inevitably gained the ascendancy within that party so that its leader Dr. Gus Inclan was elected vice-president of Cuba in November 1954 as Batista’s running mate.  Unfortunately, too many Cubans were deceived by Fidel Castro into believing that Batista was an anti- democratic usurper so that they supported the 1957-1958 anti-Batista rebellion.

With the considerable benefit of hindsight, the Cuban Liberal Party should have supported the courageous opposition presidential candidate Carlos Marquez Sterling in the November 1958 general elections.  Instead, the Cuban Liberals supported the ruling Progressive Coalition presidential candidate, the financially honest Andres Rivero Aguero, who won due to a successful boycott instigated by the mainstream of the Cuban opposition. Had Rivero served as president he probably would have followed the strategic advice of Dr. Inclan by stepping down mid-term in order to conciliate with the mainstream of the democratic opposition, so as to block Castro’s rise to power.

Although the Cuban Liberal Party under such a scenario would have been consigned to the opposition, Cuban democracy would have been preserved, while the Liberals would have emerged as the main force within Cuban Centre-right politics. The fundamental problem with Dr. Inclan’s planned political strategy was that it was overwhelmed by events for the Cuban people, in the grossly mistaken belief that Fidel Castro was a democrat, foolishly rallied to Castro’s cause thereby preventing Rivero from assuming office.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Marco Rubio

The relevance of this overview of pre-totalitarian Cuban politics is that American Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s political lineage is arguably descended from that of Dr. Inclan’s faction within the Cuban Liberal Party and the youth wing of its senior coalition partner, Fulgencio Batista’s Progressive Action Party (PAP). Accordingly, Secretary Rubio should be aware of how dangerously vulnerable the political centre is to socio-political polarization.

This political awareness on Secretary Rubio’s part should be heightened because the current direction of the foreign and defence policies of the Trump administration could ultimately serve to either prevent or precipitate domestic social political polarization which could be fatal to the United States of America.

                                                                                                                                                                                      The Politics of Cause and Effect

Secretary of State Rubio is therefore ideally placed to help ensure that the United States does not fall into the abyss by allowing Ukraine to be overrun by the Russian Federation. For if this was to occur, then there will most probably be a Chinese communist invasion of the ROC in Taiwan and with that an economic catastrophe which will have severely adverse economic consequences on the United States and the world.

This politics of cause and effect was previously apparent in that Russia’s dictator Vladmir Putin probably would not have invaded Ukraine in February 2022 had the Biden administration not willfully (and shamefully) abandoned Afghanistan in August 2021.  Similarly, the communist Chinese will now be watching to see if the United States abandons Ukraine as a factor in deciding whether to invade the ROC in Taiwan.

                                                                                                                                                                                               Avoiding World War III

The catastrophic consequences for the United States and the world arising from a communist Chinese invasion of the ROC in Taiwan have already been canvassed in this article.  Consequently, if Secretary Rubio is to short-circuit such a horrific chain of causation, he must convince President Trump to publicly announce that the United States will supply Ukraine with the munitions necessary for it to continue meaningful resistance (including the supply of Tomahawk missiles). Even the credible threat by the Americans that these munitions will be supplied to the Ukrainians may well be sufficient to compel the Russians to attend an international peace conference to end the Russo-Ukrainian War.

At such an international peace conference substantial concessions will have to be made by both the Ukrainians and the Russians to ensure that there is a lasting peace. Alas, from the Ukrainian perspective most of the eastern half of Ukraine might have to be de facto conceded to the Russian Federation.  However, in return for this horrendous concession, the Russians must be compelled to accept European North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces being deployed to western Ukraine so that Moscow cannot later re-invade Ukraine.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Conclusion

Due to Secretary of State Rubio’s political lineage, he is ideally placed to secure a termination of the Russo-Ukrainian War and in so doing by displaying American resolve prevent a subsequent communist Chinese invasion of the ROC in Taiwan, the ramifications of which would be catastrophic for the Trump administration, the United Staes and the world.