The military conflict between the United States and Iran is going badly for the latter which will have dire consequences for the world. This is because an American defeat (or even the appearance of an outcome that is not decisively a win for the US) by Iran will mean that Tehran will acquire nuclear weapons which will undoubtedly be subsequently used against Israel and perhaps other neighbouring Arab countries. The flow on effects of  Iran deploying nuclear weapons in these circumstances are serious to the point that they cannot be overstated.

Furthermore, if the United States does not win the war against Iran by facilitating regime change in Tehran, then a signal will be sent to Russia that it can continue its war of attempted conquest against Ukraine until victory is finally achieved by Moscow. However, if the Trump administration displays effective strength concerning Iran, then the scope for the United States to mediate an end to the Russo-Ukrainian War will be created.

By stark contrast, an American defeat in Iran will also send a message to Beijing that mainland China can ‘get away’ with invading the Republic of China on Taiwan. Currently, the trajectories of war between the two Chinas breaking out and Russia eventually subjugating Ukraine are there because the Americans look to be losing the war with Iran.

The reason that Iran is in this position with the war against the United States appears to be because the Americans are running out of ammunition. The Iranians have been preparing themselves for forty years for the scenario of an American military onslaught, such as is being played out at this time, and so they have ‘bunkered down’ and are now waiting for the United States to run out of ammunition.  There are credible media reports that the United States has expended eighty percent of the Tomahawk missiles that they can make available for this project.  All Tehran has to do is ‘wait it out’ until the remainder of this stockpile is exhausted.

The Trump administration seems to be applying a strategy of subjecting the regime to military pressure in the forlorn hope that Tehran will buckle, particularly in an economic context.  However, the Iranian government is unconcerned about the suffering that its people will have to endure. Furthermore, it needs to be re-emphasised, that the regime’s strategists have correctly calculated that the capacity of the United States to sustain its current military campaign is reaching an expiation point so that victory for Iran over America will be forthcoming,

Therefore, the only viable option now for the United States to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons is to send combat troops into Iran- ‘boots on the ground’.

This measure is only justifiable if the consequences of not doing it are sufficiently dire to justify it – and as pointed out earlier in this article they clearly are!

The application of the ‘boots on the ground’ option will have to be taken with great care which will entail a fundamental change of military doctrine with one that is specifically designed to deal with Iran and in so doing will mitigate casualties.

The strategic strengths of Iran are its geography and geology. It is a huge country with well established, deep, hard to penetrate munitions storage facilities (rockets, drones and enriched uranium supplies among other things) that are embedded in rocky underground facilities over a wide area of Iranian territory. This Iranian military infrastructure is therefore largely capable of withstanding US efforts to destroy or negate them.

However, these specific features could also be turned against Iran and could form the basis of a military doctrine with the potential to defeat it militarily and to ultimately result in regime change.

The geography of Iran provides it with seven immediately adjacent neighbours and a further seven countries that share a maritime border. This makes Iran a very infiltrateable country. The target munitions facilities are spread over an expansive and difficult countryside.

Such an environment makes Iran vulnerable to SAS style infiltration. It demands the deployment of a large number of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) defence garrisons.

The US strategy should be to develop a doctrine that utilises an SAS style reconnaissance and assault force in conjunction with air support and ultimately the deployment of conventional special forces of marines and paratroopers to inflict maximum damage on the IRGC defenders who are located at the sites under attack or who are moving to reinforce them.

The objective is not to take and hold ground.

The objective is to damage the munitions stocks being held at these sites and to diminish the IRGC forces protecting them.

Once completed to maximum effect at any given target, the US forces would be withdrawn and redeployed while other forces are simultaneously directed to other targets to continue to degrade the personnel and resources of Iranian forces.

The aim would be to engage the defensive forces by exposing them to US air and ground assaults as they move from site to site in order to attempt to deal with the various US attacks. Additionally, other groups, such as Kurds, Iranian monarchists and other dissident groups should be equipped and engaged to assist in guerilla activities to further harass and disrupt the IRGC forces.

The overall design of this strategy is to prevent the development of Iranian nuclear weapons, the destruction of its stocks of missiles and drones and the elimination of the IRGC forces that currently are the means utilised by the current Iranian government to prevent regime change and oppresses its citizenry into accepting the continuation of the ruling theocratic government.

The stakes are so high that the Trump administration cannot afford to fail in Iran.   Acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran will be tantamount to the regime subsequently using them against Israel and possibly other nations, including the United States and Middle Eastern neighbouring states.

 The Tehran regime has resolved that it must have nuclear weapons to survive. This determination is coupled with a realization that the current American military campaign is ineffective due to Iranian foreplaning.  Consequently, a paradigm shift (as detailed in this article) in American military strategy is not only required but is essential for the benefit of the entire globe (including Iran) and therefore Iran cannot be allowed to acquire much less to use nuclear weapons!