Arguments as to why the Trump administration cannot terminate ‘Operation Epic Fury’ prematurely and why Poland maybe the solution to saving Ukraine are advanced in this article by Dr. David Bennett
The Trump presidency is at a defining crossroads. Will Operation Epic Fury will be prematurely terminated? Should President Trump prematurely terminate Operation Epic Fury with Iran still possessing the capacity to develop (and use) nuclear weapons either immediately or in the future then this military campaign might subsequently become known as ‘Operation Epic Failure’. Iran’s clerical /military regime has already fired ballistic missiles reaching American military bases as far away as Diego Garcio (Chagos Archipelago)and reputedly has the capacity to fire ballistic missiles which could reach London.!
Consequently, for President Trump to now declare ‘victory` concerning the American air campaign against Iran with the regime still left in place along with its still formidable military, even in its current degraded state will be a colossal disaster for the United States and indeed the rest of the world. Additionally, that Iran still has the capacity to block. or at least disrupt, oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf demonstrates how dangerous the Tehran regime is to the global economy. The global ramifications of an American defeat in Iran will therefore be profound because Putin’s Russia will be able to continue its war against Ukraine to a successful conclusion while mainland communist China will be emboldened to invade the Republic of China in Taiwan. These two aforementioned horrifying scenarios are plausible because an American defeat in Iran will be correctly perceived by Moscow and Beijing as fundamental signs of weaknesses and flawed public policy on the part of the Trump administration.
By contrast an expeditious landing of US marines in Iran to facilitate regime change will solve more problems then will be created. The precepts of the brilliant British general Orde Wingate (1903 to 1944) of landing troops, securing the targeted territory and then quickly withdrawing in favour of friendly forces can be applied to Iran by the United States. The United States could and should have applied a Wingate strategy in Indochina in the l960s in accordance with the counsel of the great US General Douglas Mac Arthur (1880 to 1964).
There are political dangers for the Trump administration concerning the despatching of US marines (‘boots on the ground’) to Iran because the Democrats will scaremonger that this will lead to another ‘forever war’. However, if a Wingate military strategy is applied by the Trump administration the United States could withdraw troops in the time for the 2026 mid-term congressional election campaign. Even if a Wingate strategy is applied by the Trump administration the Democrats will of course scaremonger. Already there are Democrats are calling into question whether Iran can actually develop nuclear weapons in an attempt to delegitimize Operation Epic Fury. However, should this Democrat ‘anti-war` perspective prevail so that Operation Epic Fury becomes Operation Epic Failure, then American power around the world will be severely diminished Severely diminished due to the fundamental importance of the Persian Gulf to the global economy.
The profound challenge which the Iran situation poses to Washington is heightened by the fact that Beijing and Moscow are strategically attempting to dominate the world at the expense of the United States. Ironically while Putin’s Russia is far weaker than mainland communist China and the United States, Moscow is strategically ‘on track` to achieving its objective (in conjunction with Beijing) of a a change in the currently US dominated strategic and economic order.
The strategic effectiveness of Putin’s Russia is evident if the contemporary politics of contemporary Germany and France are analysed. Putin is having far more success than his communist predecessors ever did in relation to manipulating German politics. Ironically, even though the Soviet Union fulfilled a vital role in defeating German Nazism in World War II, Russia is greatly influencing German politics via its covert support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party.
The AfD agenda and stated policy objective is to secure a closure of American military bases in Germany so that Berlin effectively withdraws from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Despite the avowed Marxism of Xi Jing Ping’s regime, the far-fight AfD is also aligning with Beijing regarding its desire to possibly invade the Republic of China in Taiwan. Alas, the sinister foreign policy agenda of the AfD encompasses effective support for Putin’s attempt to conquer Ukraine!
Poland is a nation, which to say the least, should be concerned by the revival of a German far-right party which is strategically aligned with Moscow. Unfortunately, for the Poles their mainstay ally of France may in the next year (2027) fall to the pro-Putin far-right under the National Rally.
It is therefore imperative that Warsaw move to save Ukraine before political events overtake Poland. This can be achieved by Poland, in co-operation and with the consent of Kyiv, deploying troops to western Ukraine to initially assume defensive positions. Should Russians troops therefore reach western Ukraine then Putin will know that his forces will have to fight Poland with the prospect of defeat being a real possibility. Ideally, other European NATO nations beside Poland, such as Finland and Sweden, should also promptly deploy to western Ukraine, but because time is of the essence, Warsaw should consider going it alone.
For Poland is a nation which has often been defeated by time. This was the case in September 1939 when Britain and France failed to promptly come to Poland’s effective rescue by launching an invasion of Germany within the first fortnight of hostilities as the Poles initially held off against the Nazis. That is not to say that Poland has not previously successfully confronted the Russian threat alone. During the Russo-Polish War (1919 to 1921) Poland effectively saved Europe from the Russian communist threat by brilliantly winning the vital Battle for Warsaw (‘The Miracle on the Vistula`) in August 1920. However, the Ukrainians are now reaching a point where they can no longer alone fight the Russians in combat without ‘boots on the ground’ from neighbouring countries such as Poland.
The post-Cold War world is a confronting one due to regimes such as a would be nuclear armed Iran and Putin’s Russia not being prepared to operate within rational boundaries. These two regimes present the world with a profound challenge which has not been seen since the rise of the far-right in Europe in the 1930s. However, it cannot be said that the Trump administration and European nations (particularly Poland) should not now know what to do.